Russia/Wagner Update 24JUN23–1; 1340 Eastern

Russia Coup/Mutiny/Civil War Update — 24 June 2023

UPDATE 1350 Eastern: Between finishing editing and hitting the publish button, Prigozhin has evidently ordered his forces to stand down and move back to southern Russian and eastern Ukraine. Sometimes things move very, very fast indeed. We will keep an eye on developments, however.

I’m not sure what to call this thing yet. I guess the nomenclature will become apparent at some point in the near future. [Author’s Note: Once again, I began offering little updates/bits of information on my Facebook page, but have decided that the issue might be too large and complicated for that and have shifted back to Medium.]

A Hypothesis:

At present, it does not appear that the Russian military is or has done much to block or prevent Wagner forces from doing what they want to do. There have been some sporadic air attacks from helicopters, which have in turn been subject to anti-aircraft fire (surface to air missiles). The latter indicates that Prigozhin has planned this operation and that it wasn’t a spur of the moment thing. He’s been, allegedly, hoarding ammunition and equipment, some of which has been captured from Ukrainians. Reports are that the Wagner convoy has between 150–400 pieces of heavy equipment, to include main battle tanks (MBTs), and it seems to be moving in the direction of Moscow, being recently approximately 217 miles from the capital. Russian regular forces, or paramilitary forces, have been observed digging in IVO Moscow and are equipped only with light armored vehicles. Beyond that, there doesn’t appear to have been much done yet to impact the convoy’s movement.

I strongly suspect (and this is the hypothesis) that regular Russian forces are taking a bit of a “wait and see” approach. This is often how these types of coups/civil wars work. Those uninvolved sometimes hold out to see which way the wind will blow. However, I further suspect that further Wagner successes, say if it moves close to Moscow without being blocked or outright destroys Russian army formations, will encourage more and more regular Russian forces to join the cause. It could become a snowball effect. A cursory study of Roman civil wars, of which there were many, can illustrate how such things can happen. If this coup-thing isn’t dealt with quickly, things get worse and worse for Putin as time goes on. As an aside, Putin appears to have left Moscow for St. Petersburg. This is not a good look, and could generate animosity from regular forces. Pompey fleeing Rome in the face of Caesar’s sole legion, the 13th, was a public relations nightmare for Republican supporters. Prigozhin, like Caesar, seems to know the impact that moving fast can have. Prigozhin was prepared for this. The fact that no one in Russia seemed to notice those preparations is another damning issue for the Putin regime.

There are a few things to keep in mind. Firstly, Wagner forces have been one of the only successful (relatively speaking) forces Russia has or, I guess, had, in Ukraine. Russian troops, albeit perhaps not the officer corps, do look up to them to some extent. Convict conscript waves notwithstanding, Wagner troops are disciplined and comparatively professional, as Prigozhin has spent years recruiting from the prior iteration of the Russian military, the one that hadn’t yet been mauled in Ukraine. They are also well-equipped and know how to use that equipment. Prigozhin has also proven adept at propaganda, which further elevates Wagner’s standing in the eyes of regular soldiers. Troops, even poorly trained ones with little morale, like to be on the winning side. To the victor goes the spoils, they say. If Prigozhin and Wagner achieve victories, even symbolic ones, they will reinforce the view that they are perhaps the only competent military force in all of Russia.

Secondly, having hundreds and thousands of disaffected troops feeling abandoned or betrayed is never a good position to be in (see: Weimar Republic; Tsar Nicholas; the dissolution of the Soviet Union). I’ve pointed out in the past that, as casualties mount and wounded and battered troops are rotated back to Russia from Ukraine, this may be destabilizing to Putin’s regime. It is impossible to hide thousands of wounded soldiers. As repressive as the regime may be, people talk. This is, undoubtedly at this point, a massive amount of people who may have already been dreaming of the day when they and their friends weren’t sent to die in the plains and cities of Ukraine for no apparent reason other than one man’s hubris or a government of oligarchs. These people, these troops, are ripe for plucking, especially by someone as savvy as Prigozhin who, at this time, seems to be saying all the right things. He’s not yet suggesting the overthrow of the President. He’s directing his ire at the MoD, righteously suggesting that it has prosecuted this war terribly. He is appealing to patriotic sentiments, suggesting instead that if only Putin was aware that the war is going so badly, he might stop things or change course. This sort of echoes back to the days when political prisoners in the gulag would write letters to Stalin, thinking that if only they could tell Uncle Joe what was happening, he’d put a stop to it. Uncle Joe knew. Putin knows, too. I don’t think, however, that Putin has appreciated how popular Prigozhin has become in Russia. In any case, Prigozhin is toeing the line quite well so far. I would not be surprised at all if some elements of Russia’s active-duty force and/or those not currently in uniform but had been in the recent past start to come around to Prigozhin. [Analyst’s Comment: It is possible that Prigozhin has already prepared cells of supporters throughout Russia. End Comment.]

Putin thus faces a dilemma. He has to crush this coup-thing sooner rather than later. And he also has to prevent it from growing, spreading like a fatal cancer. If that Wagner formation starts to grow and then metastasize, popping up little Wagnerian tumors across western Russia, then things can grow very dire for Putin’s continued existence as the man in charge. Or perhaps even a living, breathing human. I’m not quite sure at this point that Putin is winning on either front. To be clear, however, if regular Russian units do abandon their posts and join Prigozhin’s bid for the purple, they won’t likely be led by their senior officers. It wouldn’t surprise me if those senior officers ended up accidentally dying at the hands of their soldiers. This would, of course, mean that those hypothetical troops would be under the direct control of Wagner forces.

There’s more that complicates this situation. As mentioned earlier today, Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov, ostensible ally to Putin (if in such a situation anyone can actually ever be counted as an ally to anyone else), stated that he is loyal to Putin and has offered to help put down Prigozhin’s uprising. Months ago I discussed the enmity and conflicting plans all these little chieftains had as the jockeyed and postured. They have aims that do not always align with each other or the Russian state. However, as a good friend rightfully points out, if Kadyrov does get involved and engages Wagner forces in combat, it might shift the sentiments of regular Russian forces toward Prigozhin rather than away from him. As said friend also points out, there’s no love between Kadyrov and his Chechens and much of the regular Russian army. They may decide that they cannot be in bed with anyone who enlists the help of Kadyrov to fight this coup/uprising/conflict.

It is too early, for me at least, to speculate on what this means for the Ukraine invasion, though I suspect Ukraine will capitalize on any advantages it sees on the battlefield. [Analyst’s Comment: Rostov is a logistical hub of key importance to the Russian war effort in Ukraine, however, and if it is no longer controlled by Russian forces, it could severely undermine the continuation of that effort. Prigozhin could essentially strangle Russian efforts in Ukraine. It remains to be seen. End Comment.]

Nor will I engage in speculation, which has been done repeatedly already in the mainstream media, about nuclear weapons or their potential use. At this point, not only is speculation of the latter unproductive, the former isn’t something probably anyone has a clear picture of yet.

Lastly, there have been a few analysts that have offered the hypothesis that this is some 4D chess being played by Russia, where Prigozhin’s actions are part of a psychological operations campaign, perhaps designed to undermine Shoigu and the MoD and, in turn, make them take the fall for the abysmal situation in Ukraine. I think this is an intriguing possibility, I just haven’t seen enough of anything that proves that at this time. Highly recommend giving the above article a look.

The situation is fluid, complicated, confusing. It could get very messy in the next few days. I’ll update if and when I have something worthy of reporting.