Russia/Ukraine INTREP 21FEB22; 2100 Eastern

[Originally posted on author’s Facebook page; post is publicly available.]

A credible source on Twitter, with information from a Russian social media service, states that approximately 100 Russian soldiers from the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division were left at a train station for five days without provisions, according to residents of Veselaya Lopan (who told the Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers). They were forced to buy their own from the local economy. The conscripts ran out of money, and the locals had to provide them with food and water. I doubt this is an isolated incident.

Russia is about to learn a bit about logistics. This is a very large deployment of troops; amongst the largest by Russia since the end of WWII. Troops have to be fed. I don’t think that this deployment of 190,000 people is sustainable even in the medium term. Russia is not the United States. It costs a lot of money, and if you don’t supply them adequately, it becomes sort of a “use it or lose it” scenario. It suggests that something — either an invasion or a large return to garrison — is bound to happen fairly quickly.