Russia/Ukraine INTSUM 26FEB22–2; 1521 Eastern/2221 Kyiv
[Originally posted on author’s Facebook page; post is publicly available.]
1.) Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Federov has claimed that Twitter has stopped registering new accounts from Russian territory. Vodafone Ukraine has turned off roaming services, thus rendering Russian cellphones in country into expensive bricks. This is important to deny Russians the use of cellular data at the tactical level. Think individual soldiers looking at a digital map. And just when a sign on the highway pointing to Kyiv was replaced with one saying, “Good Luck.” Another sign says, “Welcome to Hell.”
2.) The Ukraine Embassy in Israel has, and I kid you not, posted a call for Isreali volunteers “who wish to participate in combat actions against the Russian aggressor.” Zelenskyy appears to have asked virtually ANYBODY who’s willing to come fight… My wife is glad I’m not ten years younger. All jokes aside, it’s probably best for AMCITS to take a step back if they’re considering such a thing.
2.a.) That said: A poll on Michael Smerconish’s website asked: “Should NATO go to war for Ukraine?” There were 36,691 votes; 77% said yes. Granted, this is not any sort of scientific survey across all segments of American society and there’s probably some selection bias. But that’s a much, much larger percentage than I would have expected.
3.) Update on Netherlands’ supply of arms to Ukraine I mentioned earlier: 200 FIM-92 Stinger MANPADS (man-portable air defense systems) and 400 Panzerfaust-3 anti-tank missiles. It isn’t clear what Panzerfaust 3 variant they’re shipping, however, the Pzf-3-IT600 was designed to compete with the NLAWs that are currently being used to very good effect, so its capabilities must be somewhat similar. That variant can penetrate 900+mm armor even if supported by explosive reactive armor (ERA), or more than 1,150 mm without ERA. It looks to me, then, to be a tandem HEAT warhead. It will not penetrate the glacis plate or turret of a T-90 MBT, but then infantry aren’t supposed to attack a tank from the front. In addition to this, Germany has lifted its ban on sending offensive weapons to Ukraine. Germany will reportedly be sending 1,000 anti-tank missiles, probably Panzerfausts, and 500 FIM-92s.
4.) British Intelligence Update from this morning assesses that “The speed of the Russian advance has temporarily slowed likely as a result of acute logistical difficulties and strong Ukrainian resistance…Overnight clashes in Kyiv are likely to have involved limited numbers of pre-positioned Russian sabotage groups.” Yesterday I read something that suggested Russian assets had been in place in Kyiv since at least 14 February.
4.a.) Despite more than 250 ballistic and cruise missile strikes, UA air defense systems are remain operational. This is likely an area of frustration. Some reports suggested the Russian forces surrounding Ukraine had 400–500 ballistic missiles and cruise missiles (not launchers; missiles themselves). If that’s the case, that represents a significant portion of their available munitions fired over what is effectively just two days, and sems to have had minimal impacts on the efficacy of UA forces. I’m not sure if this was a result of poor targeting information, but I did mention a few days ago that Russian ISR assets seemed to be strangely absent. It’s possible that RU thought they knew where everything was. Regardless, they’ve clearly not sufficiently eroded air defenses throughout Ukraine, and there are growing reports of more downed helo assets, likely from UA troops using MANPADS. MANPADS are, absolutely, a danger to even close air support assets flying low. They are also why whenever you see a video of a Russian helo, they’re likely firing flares in bunches.
5.) Kadyrovtsy, a Chechen paramilitary group with a pretty checkered past, are allegedly in or around Hostomel. They’ve been rumored to be on their way to or already in Ukraine for a couple of day. They videoed themselves removing the Ukrainian flag on a gate and replacing it with a Russian flag. Firstly, that’s poor optics when your claim is to be freeing the Ukrainians from a neo-Nazi regime. There are multiple reports of Russians removing Ukrainian flags and replacing them with Russian flags. Secondly, the Kadyrovtsy are not nice people. While they fought against the Russians in the First Chechen War, they switched allegiance in the second and have been somewhat integrated into RU security forces and law enforcement since. There are widespread and credible accusations of war crimes perpetrated by them, to include kidnappings and murder. The group has experience in Ukraine, having participated in the Donbas in the past. This, along with the movements of heavy artillery, may represent a shift in effort or at least the ability to shift effort away from securing areas without substantial civilian casualties. Should RU become frustrated, it is well within the scope of reason that this group engages in kidnapping operations in order to instill fear and uncertainty in the civilian population.
6.) The US has confirmed that an amphibious assault has taken place in the Sea of Azov, using four of the ten landing ships, and have likely put several thousand naval infantry ashore. One unconfirmed report stated that the Russian equivalent of the US Navy SEALs was unable to make it ashore at all due to the water temperature. US intelligence analysts estimate that approximately 50% of the ~190,000 troops deployed around Ukraine are now inside Ukraine. There are already multiple reports of strained logistics; vehicles running out of fuel, individual soldiers attempting to secure food and water however they can, to include asking Ukrainians. I strongly doubt those logistical issues will be resolved quickly, and will only grow should the Russian footprint inside UA get larger. RU is going to have to commit more logistical effort. It appears that they have plenty of ammunition (save maybe those missiles), but not nearly enough of all the other things that war requires. It’s exceedingly difficult to shoot at Ukrainians with your tank guns when the tanks’ engines will not start.
7.) NATO movement update: Unknown number of Challenger 2 MBTs and around 1,000 British troops will move from Germany to Estonia (NFI). A new NATO Battle Group being formed in Slovakia, and it will consist of 1,200 foreign troops and a Patriot air defense system manned by Germans and Dutch. NATO is taking this very seriously, and it seems that the alliance is committed to giving RU the impression that it should not entertain any further imperialistic fantasies in Eastern Europe.
8.) US may sanction Russia’s Central Bank, which would lock up much of the 634 billion USD that Russia has in its reserves. Additionally, the decoupling of Russia from SWIFT seems imminent. Numerous countries that had previously been against this or on the fence about it have come out in support of this measure. These two things would be heavy blows to Russia.
9.) I can confirm that Ukrainians are definitely using those Molotov cocktails against Russian vehicles. Some Ukrainians have even posted pictures of their “minibars.”
10.) Turkey will stick to the Montreux Convention. Lithuania will ban Russian airlines from its airspace, joining a slew of other countries who’ve already done so.
11.) Belarusian President Lukashenko was recently on the phone with French President Macron. No details on what was discussed. This comes as multiple reports suggest that Belarusian troops may be deployed to Ukraine in the coming days. It seems to me that Lukashenko has firmly hitched his wagon to Putin’s horse and will follow him into the depths of hell. I expect that soon calls for sanctions against Belarus will grow into a cacophony.
12.) Many, many videos of Russian soldiers surrendering to actual civilians, which is not a good look for Russia. These kids look tired, hungry, and confused. Some are claiming they didn’t even know they were in Ukraine. The Ukrainians seem to be treating them as though they are mere pawns in a game they didn’t know they were playing; in other words, fairly.
Admin Note: I may shift all this reporting to Medium, and just share links on here from there. I should probably actually get on Twitter rather than just look at Twitter, like a normal 21st century person.
