Russia/Ukraine INTSUM 03MAR22–1; 0900 Eastern/1500 Kyiv
1.) NYT reporter Michael Schwirtz reports that Kherson has, indeed, fallen. The mayor, Igor Kolykhaev, stated that he met with the Russian commander in charge of the attack on the city, and added that the Russians plan on establishing a military administration. This marks the first major city to come under RU control. After the last week, due to the tenacity of Ukrainian defenders, it’s easy for us sitting in comfort to start to think that these places could never fall. I cannot imagine the difficulty faced by that mayor nor the citizens of Kherson who, after fighting hard, had to meet with those who were intent on committing widespread destruction of their homes should they continue to fight.
2.) News is that a Russian missile hit the Bangladesh-flagged bulk carrier Banglar Samriddhi near Olvia Port in Ukraine. The vessel was seen with smoke and fire from its superstructure. It is being reported that an Estonian-flagged cargo ship has sunk off Odessa after potentially hitting a mine. NFI. If true, these events would represent the third and fourth instances in which civilian ships have suffered damage or loss during this war.
3.) Video reportedly from western Crimea shows what appears to be a grouping of eight Russian vessels, likely amphibious landing ships. They are not too far from shore. It looks like there’s 1 x Ivan Gren-class (Pyotr Morgunov, Northern Fleet, displacing 6,600 tons loaded), 2 x Alligator-class (4,700 tons displacement), and 5 x Ropucha-class (4,000 tons displacement). It is not clear their intentions, nor exactly where they are, but their proximity to shore means they are unconcerned with anti-ship fire. They do not appear to have any escorts, either. It is possible that they are being held in reserve for future amphibious operations, potentially to the west near Odessa, though that is mere speculation on my part. Regardless, they represent significant sea lift capability.
4.) Though much of the world remains focused on Kyiv’s situation, there is still plenty of fighting taking place in the Donbas and the separatist republics there. One hundred “shells,” likely rockets, were reported as landing on the town of Popasna (population ~19,000), which is west of the city of Luhansk. Two word Tweet from Donetsk about an hour ago: “Very loud.”
4.a.) Kharkiv is slowly turning into Dresden, 1945. Video has shown reported cruise missile strikes, and pictures are beginning to show gutted buildings. CNN reported that, according to Western officials, there’s an expectation that RU forces will increase their bombardment of UA cities, which we discussed in this space some days ago. This is really no surprise, and we’ve seen the ramp up happening already. There are very widespread reports of RU artillery forces hitting all sorts of non-military targets, such as schools and hospitals. One image that I recently saw showed a very large hole in the wall of a school gymnasium. Kyiv was under air attack last night, with witnesses seeing (and recording) multiple, large explosions. One observed said, “Two of the largest explosions I’ve ever experienced just went off in Kyiv.” The man is an experience foreign correspondent, though I am not able to tell you how many explosions he’s seen. Explosions look larger at night, usually. That said, there’s a big fire in the Chaiky area in Kyiv, very near to what look to be residential buildings.
5.) Speaking of night, I expect that more and more RU activity will take place during the darkness, particularly air strikes. RU ground forces are nowhere near as capable of night operations as Western forces are due to lack of adequate equipment and training, so it’s not likely we’ll see as much activity on that front. But, frankly, neither are RU air assets. RU pilots rarely get 100 hours of flight time per year, and are probably not very well trained on their sensor systems and targeting systems. This may explain the apparent ineffectiveness of precision-guided munitions, of which RU has diminished stores after Syria. It may also explain why we’ve seen Su-34s, a very advanced strike aircraft, dropping dumb bombs based on a sixty year old design (FAB-500s) — some of which did not explode. In any case, it seems likely that RU pilots will find a slightly more permissive environment at night, though it’s important to note that Ukrainian IADS (integrated air defense systems) have not been fully suppressed, and all combat operations by RU aircraft will face some risk.
6.) The Kyiv Independent reported yesterday that “Ukrainian special forces will no longer capture Russian artillerymen…The Command of Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces has warned that it will kill captured Russian artillerymen in response to their “brutal shelling” of civilians and cities. This merits some reflection. Perhaps something is lost in translation. I read the translation. It seems to indicate that UA SOF would kill captured artillerymen or those who surrendered. I’m not sure that was the intended message. Ukraine has thus far been on point when it comes to the information war and if that’s the actual intent, this may mark the first misstep. There are Geneva Convention rules regarding combatants who are surrendering or who have surrendered, and killing them would likely constitute a war crime. This is contrasted with the many videos of UA citizens allowing captured RU troops to call home while being fed. On the other hand, the UA argument might consist of this: RU artillery has engaged in indiscriminate targeting of UA cities, to include civilian infrastructure, thus engaging in war crimes; those who engage in war crimes are not protected by the Geneva Conventions. I think this is a slippery slope and even if I concede that that argument has merit — and I can certainly understand the anger and frustration — I think it would be a mistake to travel down that road. It’s a really tough sell, especially to people around the world who aren’t savvy about war crimes and the laws of armed conflict. Virtually the entire globe is behind UA efforts at repelling RU aggression, but this would do them no favors.
7.) Major General Andrey Sukhovetskiy, a Spetsnaz commander and deputy commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army, was reportedly killed by Ukrainian forces. This seems to have been confirmed in an announcement made by a Russian veterans group called “Combat Brotherhood.” The 41st Combined Arms Army is part of Russia’s Central Military District, with its garrison headquarters in Novosibirsk. It likely entered UA from the north and may have been involved in action around Chernobyl before heading toward Kyiv. A major general is the equivalent of a Brigadier General, or one star, in the US Army. Generals being killed on the battlefield is always a big deal, and this is likely a demotivating factor for RU forces around Kyiv. Given Sukhovetskiy’s experience with the much vaunted Spetznas, this might be doubly so. I don’t know how good the man was as a battlefield commander, but he was a very senior officer.
8.) Moral remains, and will continue to remain, an issue for RU forces. An unconfirmed video shows what looks to be a large group of RU soldiers deserting, saying they have not been fed in 3–4 days, and that their units suffer from disorganization. An army marches on its stomach, they say. Adequate food is a massive driver of morale. Having poor leadership is a massive driver of demoralization.
9.) The US has cancelled a planned test launch of a Minuteman III ICBM out of Vandenberg, primarily to avoid any misinterpretation by RU.
10.) The 1980s are fashionable again, what with the popularity of Stranger Things and other equally strange things. And thus, the United States is shipping FIM-92 Stinger MANPADS to a foreign country with the express purpose of shooting down modern variants of the same Soviet/Russian aircraft it did in Afghanistan. So far, 200 Stingers have been delivered, and hundreds more are on the way, to Ukrainian forces. The Stinger is estimated to have been responsible for 269 successful engagements in Afghanistan, for a 79% kill probability. In addition, Germany has stated it will ship an additional 2,700 “anti-air missiles” to Ukraine.
11.) The 512 foot yacht belonging to Alisher Usmanov, mining oligarch, has reportedly been seized by the Germans in Hamburg. It apparently has the largest pool ever put on a yacht, along with a sauna and a beauty salon. Expect more reports like this as Western nations that have enacted sanctions look high and low for Russian assets all over the globe.
12.) Video shows confirmation of the destruction of the An-225 at Gostomel. It is obvious that I lament the loss of civilian life, but as a plane junkie, it’s sad to see a one-of-a-kind aircraft like that be destroyed.
13.) Twitter feed ShadowBreak Intl. is looking for Russian speakers to assist in the translation of the hours of radio chatter they’ve recorded. If you know someone who speaks Russian and has the time to assist, I’m sure they’d be grateful.
More later. Thank you for reading.
