There’s a lot to cover today, so let’s not delay. 1.) According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Russia will kick off an offensive in Donbas, perhaps as early as 04 April. It appears that two main thrusts will occur, one towards Severodonetsk, west of Luhansk, and another toward Velyka Novosilka…

**Trigger Warning: Discussion of Possible War Crimes** The issue of war crimes in Ukraine may well dominate discussions about this war in the future. 1.) Over the past 24 hours, we’ve seen growing reports concerning mass executions and graves in the suburbs of Kyiv. The news and images are horrific…

1.) Numerous Russian media outlets reported a helicopter strike on an oil storage facility in Belgorod, Russia, with eight large oil tanks on fire as a result. Russian news states that each tank holds 2,000 cubic meters, and there’s considerable risk that the fire will spread to another area of…

1.) Russian artillery has continued to shell Kyiv and Chernihiv, despite Russian claims that operations around those cities would be scaled back. The shelling was reportedly significant, with civilian infrastructure and homes damaged or destroyed. Sources in the city report an almost constant, endless rumble of artillery. Remember, Russia’s chief…

The past fifteen or so hours have been filled with happenings, particularly on the “diplomatic” front. 1.) Amidst ongoing negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations, Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin announced that Russia will “cut back military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernihiv to increase mutual trust…

The weekend was busy. Let’s get to it. 1.) On Friday, seemingly right after INTSUM 25MAR22 was issued, the head of the General Staff’s Main Operational Directorate, Sergei Rudskoi, stated that Russian forces would begin concentrating on Russia’s “main goal.” In a bit of revisionist history, Rudskoi seems to suggest…

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has entered its second month of a four-day operation. 1.) From Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ Twitter page at 0938 Eastern on 24 March 2022: “Exactly one month since the start of the special military operation in Ukraine; it is going according to plan, and…

Let’s get to it. 1.) A few days ago we discussed what appeared to be Ukrainian efforts to cut off Russian forces in and around Irpin, Hostomel, and Bucha. Irpin may even have been recaptured by Ukraine. There are reports that they have succeeded in doing so, but these reports…

1.) In the larger picture, the situation in Ukraine is rapidly approaching the point of stalemate. Russian forces seem unable to make any significant movements toward objectives like Kyiv, and it seems increasingly likely that they will not be able to do so in the near term. Ukrainian forces continue…